Sporting Ben Arous 0–1 EM Mahdia: Result & Stats

Sporting Ben Arous

FT

0 – 1

EM Mahdia

1/23/2022

Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundStade de Ben Arous

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting Ben Arous48%

×Draw25%

EM Mahdia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Ben ArousExpected goals in this matchEM Mahdia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.09

Sporting Ben Arous

1.56

EM Mahdia

1.09

Sporting Ben Arous creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

1.43

0.75

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sporting Ben Arous

1.25

EM Mahdia

1.43

allows per match

Sporting Ben Arous

0.75

EM Mahdia

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Ben Arous ↓

EM Mahdia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Ben Arous or draw

73%

Sporting Ben Arous or EM Mahdia

75%

Draw or EM Mahdia

52%

Winning margin

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

25%

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

79%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

46%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

21%

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

66%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

30%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

64%

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Ben Arous at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Ben Arous attack 1.25 + EM Mahdia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

EM Mahdia attack 1.43 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

48%

level

25%

EM Mahdia scores more

27%

Sporting Ben Arous at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sporting Ben Arous will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff