EM Mahdia 2–0 Sporting Ben Arous: Result & Stats

EM Mahdia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Ben Arous

1/4/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

EM Mahdia45%

×Draw29%

Sporting Ben Arous25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EM MahdiaExpected goals in this matchSporting Ben Arous

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.84

EM Mahdia

1.23

Sporting Ben Arous

0.84

EM Mahdia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 46 away

1.21

creates per match

0.54

1.14

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

EM Mahdia

1.21

Sporting Ben Arous

0.54

allows per match

EM Mahdia

1.14

Sporting Ben Arous

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw

75%

EM Mahdia or Sporting Ben Arous

71%

Draw or Sporting Ben Arous

55%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

20%

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

71%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

35%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

13%

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

57%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

21%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

64%

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

EM Mahdia scores more

45%

level

29%

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

25%

EM Mahdia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff