Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportfreunde Siegen vs Preußen Münster II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
5/3/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 34Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen41%
×Draw24%
Preußen Münster II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.61
Preußen Münster II
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
Preußen Münster II
1.72

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
Preußen Münster II
1.51

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
65%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Preußen Münster II
76%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
59%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
21%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
80%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
48%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
22%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
77%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
43%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
54%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
41%
level
24%
Preußen Münster II scores more
35%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Sportfreunde Siegen 1–0 Preußen Münster II

Sportfreunde Siegen beat Preußen Münster II 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.