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Preußen Münster II vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
3/29/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Preußen Münster II44%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Siegen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
1.94
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.67

Preußen Münster II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 72 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.79

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.44

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
66%
Preußen Münster II or Sportfreunde Siegen
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
56%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
25%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
86%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
58%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
30%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
81%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
50%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
57%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
44%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
34%

Preußen Münster II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preußen Münster II vs Sportfreunde Siegen

Preußen Münster II beat Sportfreunde Siegen 3-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 29, 2023.

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.