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Sportfreunde Siegen vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
CANC
14:00
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
3/14/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 24Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen43%
×Draw23%
Holzwickeder SC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.69
Holzwickeder SC
1.48

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
66%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Holzwickeder SC
77%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
57%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
22%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
82%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
50%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
24%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
77%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
43%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
56%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
43%
level
23%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
34%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportfreunde Siegen vs Holzwickeder SC — Match Preview

Sportfreunde Siegen face Holzwickeder SC on March 14, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sportfreunde Siegen host Holzwickeder SC at Leimbachstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.