Holzwickeder SC 4–1 Sportfreunde Siegen

Holzwickeder SC

FT

4 – 1

Sportfreunde Siegen

9/20/2020

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 3Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC27%

×Draw21%

Sportfreunde Siegen52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holzwickeder SCExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.12

Holzwickeder SC

1.50

Sportfreunde Siegen

2.12

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

1.56

creates per match

1.79

2.44

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC

1.56

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.79

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC

2.44

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw

48%

Holzwickeder SC or Sportfreunde Siegen

79%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen

73%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+

12%

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals

78%

Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals

44%

Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals

19%

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals

88%

Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals

62%

Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)

35%

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more

27%

level

21%

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more

52%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff