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Sportfreunde Siegen vs Fortuna Köln — League #87 2026

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Köln
Fortuna Köln
J. Santo 79'
O. Tokac 24'
T. Bornemann 69'
H. Al Ghaddioui 36'
11/22/2025League #87League #87 · West - 16Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen45%
×Draw26%
Fortuna Köln29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.47
Fortuna Köln
1.13

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
2.00
Fortuna Köln
1.46

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
0.80
Fortuna Köln
0.93

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Fortuna Köln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
71%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Fortuna Köln
74%
Draw or Fortuna Köln
55%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
22%
Fortuna Köln wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
77%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
43%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
18%
Fortuna Köln 1+ goals
68%
Fortuna Köln 2+ goals
31%
Fortuna Köln 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
61%
Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Fortuna Köln away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 2.00 + Fortuna Köln defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.47

Fortuna Köln attack 1.46 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
45%
level
26%
Fortuna Köln scores more
29%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
O. Tokac
36'
H. Al Ghaddioui
69'
T. Bornemann
79'
J. Santo
Sportfreunde
Fortuna
Thorsten Nehrbauer
Manager: Thorsten Nehrbauer
M. Mink
Manager: M. Mink

League #87: Sportfreunde Siegen 2–2 Fortuna Köln

Sportfreunde Siegen and Fortuna Köln drew 2-2 in League #87 on November 22, 2025.

Goals: O. Tokac (24'), H. Al Ghaddioui (36'), T. Bornemann (69'), J. Santo (79').

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.