Fortuna Köln 9–1 Sportfreunde Siegen

Fortuna Köln

9 – 1

HT: 5 – 0

Sportfreunde Siegen

1/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fortuna Köln59%

×Draw17%

Sportfreunde Siegen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna KölnExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

2.02

Fortuna Köln

3.16

Sportfreunde Siegen

2.02

Fortuna Köln creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

2.91

creates per match

2.40

1.64

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Fortuna Köln

2.91

Sportfreunde Siegen

2.40

allows per match

Fortuna Köln

1.64

Sportfreunde Siegen

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln or draw

76%

Fortuna Köln or Sportfreunde Siegen

83%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen

41%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+

41%

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals

96%

Fortuna Köln 2+ goals

82%

Fortuna Köln 3+ goals

59%

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals

87%

Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals

60%

Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)

71%

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln at home — creates 2.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 2.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln attack 2.91 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.16

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 2.40 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fortuna Köln scores more

59%

level

17%

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more

24%

Fortuna Köln at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff