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Sportfreunde Siegen vs FC Gutersloh — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
J. Huber 16'
A. Dantas 73'
T. Manstein 43'
9/11/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 5Kunstrasenplatz Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen35%
×Draw25%
FC Gutersloh40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.33
FC Gutersloh
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
FC Gutersloh
1.67

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
FC Gutersloh
0.94

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
FC Gutersloh+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

FC Gutersloh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
60%
Sportfreunde Siegen or FC Gutersloh
75%
Draw or FC Gutersloh
65%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
15%
FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
74%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
38%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
15%
FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
77%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
42%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
46%
FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

FC Gutersloh away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Gutersloh attack 1.67 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
35%
level
25%
FC Gutersloh scores more
40%

FC Gutersloh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
J. Huber
43'
T. Manstein
73'
A. Dantas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Siegen vs FC Gutersloh

FC Gutersloh beat Sportfreunde Siegen 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 11, 2022.

Goals: J. Huber (16'), T. Manstein (43'), A. Dantas (73').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Leimbachstadion in Siegen.