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FC Gutersloh vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

FC Gutersloh
FC Gutersloh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
5/5/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Promotion Round - 1Heidewaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC Gutersloh44%
×Draw24%
Sportfreunde Siegen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gutersloh
1.64
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.34

FC Gutersloh creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 72 away

creates per match

FC Gutersloh
1.83
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.79

allows per match

FC Gutersloh
0.89
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.44

finishing

FC Gutersloh+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gutersloh ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Gutersloh or draw
69%
FC Gutersloh or Sportfreunde Siegen
76%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
56%

Winning margin

FC Gutersloh wins by 2+
23%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Gutersloh 1+ goals
81%
FC Gutersloh 2+ goals
49%
FC Gutersloh 3+ goals
23%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
74%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
39%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Gutersloh (draw refunded)
59%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gutersloh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gutersloh attack 1.83 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + FC Gutersloh defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Gutersloh scores more
44%
level
24%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
31%

FC Gutersloh at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Gutersloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: FC Gutersloh 1–1 Sportfreunde Siegen

FC Gutersloh and Sportfreunde Siegen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 5, 2022.

The match was played at Heidewaldstadion in Gütersloh.