Sportfreunde Siegen 0–1 Ennepetal: Result & Stats

Sportfreunde Siegen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ennepetal

4/10/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 27Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen52%

×Draw22%

Ennepetal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde SiegenExpected goals in this matchEnnepetal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.28

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.93

Ennepetal

1.28

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 88 away

1.72

creates per match

1.33

1.23

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.72

Ennepetal

1.33

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.23

Ennepetal

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Ennepetal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Ennepetal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw

75%

Sportfreunde Siegen or Ennepetal

78%

Draw or Ennepetal

48%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+

30%

Ennepetal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals

85%

Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals

57%

Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals

30%

Ennepetal 1+ goals

72%

Ennepetal 2+ goals

37%

Ennepetal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)

67%

Ennepetal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Ennepetal away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Ennepetal defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.93

Ennepetal attack 1.33 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more

52%

level

22%

Ennepetal scores more

25%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff