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Ennepetal vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
4/6/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 29Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Ennepetal32%
×Draw23%
Sportfreunde Siegen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
1.50
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.83

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.79

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.44

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
55%
Ennepetal or Sportfreunde Siegen
77%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
68%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
15%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
78%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
44%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
19%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
84%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
54%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
41%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ennepetal scores more
32%
level
23%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
45%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Ennepetal 1–3 Sportfreunde Siegen

Sportfreunde Siegen beat Ennepetal 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Bremenstadion Kunstrasenplatz in Ennepetal.