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Sportfreunde Siegen vs Eintracht Rheine — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
4/2/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 25Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen51%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Rheine27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.97
Eintracht Rheine
1.39

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 89 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
Eintracht Rheine
1.54

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
Eintracht Rheine
2.22

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Eintracht Rheine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
73%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Eintracht Rheine
78%
Draw or Eintracht Rheine
49%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
29%
Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
86%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
58%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
31%
Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
75%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
40%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
65%
Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.97

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
51%
level
22%
Eintracht Rheine scores more
27%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Sportfreunde Siegen 4–2 Eintracht Rheine

Sportfreunde Siegen beat Eintracht Rheine 4-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.