Eintracht Rheine 1–1 Sportfreunde Siegen

Eintracht Rheine

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportfreunde Siegen

2/10/2024

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 17OBI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Eintracht Rheine35%

×Draw24%

Sportfreunde Siegen40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht RheineExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.56

Eintracht Rheine

1.44

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 72 away

1.44

creates per match

1.79

1.34

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Eintracht Rheine

1.44

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.79

allows per match

Eintracht Rheine

1.34

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Rheine ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Rheine or draw

60%

Eintracht Rheine or Sportfreunde Siegen

76%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen

65%

Winning margin

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+

16%

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals

76%

Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals

42%

Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals

18%

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals

79%

Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals

46%

Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)

47%

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Rheine at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.44 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Eintracht Rheine defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eintracht Rheine scores more

35%

level

24%

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more

40%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff