Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportfreunde Siegen vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
9/20/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen40%
×Draw23%
ASC Dortmund37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.65
ASC Dortmund
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 89 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
63%
Sportfreunde Siegen or ASC Dortmund
77%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
60%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
20%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
81%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
49%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
23%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
80%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
47%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
52%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
40%
level
23%
ASC Dortmund scores more
37%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Sportfreunde Siegen 0–3 ASC Dortmund

ASC Dortmund beat Sportfreunde Siegen 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.