ASC Dortmund vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 72+ matches
ASC Dortmund43%
Sportfreunde Siegen34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
ASC Dortmund creates 14% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 72 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
ASC Dortmund ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches
Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.80
Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
ASC Dortmund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
FC Gutersloh
Holzwickeder SC
Westfalia Rhynern
SprockhovelASC Dortmund
Kaan-Marienborn
Meinerzhagen
Vreden
SG Wattenscheid 09Sportfreunde Siegen
Preußen Münster II
Ennepetal
TuS Haltern
TuS Erndtebruck
Paderborn II
Schermbeck
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Eintracht Rheine
Victoria Clarholz
Westfalia Herne
Hammer SpVgIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
ASC Dortmund host Sportfreunde Siegen on Sunday, 5 February 2023 at 14:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Westfalen 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: ASC Dortmund vs Sportfreunde Siegen
ASC Dortmund beat Sportfreunde Siegen 3-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 5, 2023.
The match was played at Sportplatz Schweizer Allee in Dortmund.