Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1–0 Schott Mainz U19

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Schott Mainz U19

D. Omeragic 12'

5/10/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 13Kunstrasenplatz Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U1963%

×Draw17%

Schott Mainz U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde Siegen U19Expected goals in this matchSchott Mainz U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.47

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.73

Schott Mainz U19

1.47

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 26 away

2.14

creates per match

1.08

1.86

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.14

Schott Mainz U19

1.08

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

1.86

Schott Mainz U19

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 ↓

Schott Mainz U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or draw

81%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or Schott Mainz U19

83%

Draw or Schott Mainz U19

37%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

43%

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

93%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

75%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

50%

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

77%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

43%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Schott Mainz U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.14 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.73

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.08 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

63%

level

17%

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

19%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Omeragic

46'

B. Patschke← K. Benali

46'

M. Satik← P. Mokam

66'

P. Offermann← L. Dumiec

78'

H. Nakai← B. Angong

78'

J. Lotz← J. Adozi

78'

Y. El Ayouchi← D. Omeragic

84'

B. Beißmann← L. Bernjus

84'

J. Frisch← L. Mehmeti

86'

K. Boss← T. Eckstein

87'

D. Adrovic← Imad

Sportfreunde

Schott

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Aslan

78'▲H. Nakai←▼B. Angong

78'▲J. Lotz←▼J. Adozi

78'▲Y. El Ayouchi←▼D. Omeragic

87'▲D. Adrovic←▼Imad

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

NakaiLotzAyouchiAdrovicAsanDulenchuckEngel

Manager: P. Staegemann

46'▲B. Patschke←▼K. Benali

46'▲M. Satik←▼P. Mokam

66'▲P. Offermann←▼L. Dumiec

84'▲B. Beißmann←▼L. Bernjus

84'▲J. Frisch←▼L. Mehmeti

86'▲K. Boss←▼T. Eckstein

Schott Mainz U19 substitutes

PatschkeSatikOffermannBeißmannFrischBossNeumann