Schott Mainz U19 4–3 Sportfreunde Siegen U19

Schott Mainz U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

B. Patschke 90+4'

S. Bousfia 29'

L. Mehmeti 23'

P. Trainor 14'

J. Adozi 78'

B. Ngyombo 9'

Imad 5'

3/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 6Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Schott Mainz U1946%

×Draw18%

Sportfreunde Siegen U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott Mainz U19Expected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

2.44

Schott Mainz U19

2.78

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.44

Schott Mainz U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

2.00

2.88

allows per match

4.14

creates per match

Schott Mainz U19

1.42

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.00

allows per match

Schott Mainz U19

2.88

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

4.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz U19 ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Schott Mainz U19 or draw

65%

Schott Mainz U19 or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

82%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

54%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

29%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

94%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

76%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

51%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

91%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

70%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.42 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 2.78

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.00 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

46%

level

18%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

35%

Schott Mainz U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Schott Mainz U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

9'

14'

23'

29'

33'

J. Schonlau← B. El van Cihangir

57'

Y. El Ayouchi← D. Omeragic

69'

B. Patschke← L. Mehmeti

72'

L. Meyer← A. Peci

77'

D. Maličević← K. Benali

77'

T. Gündogdu← P. Offermann

78'

J. Adozi

86'

B. Beißmann← P. Trainor

86'

K. Boss← L. Bernjus

86'

L. Dumiec← P. Mokam

90+4'

B. Patschke

Schott

Sportfreunde

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Trainor

⚽

▼

Mehmeti

Manager: P. Staegemann

69'▲B. Patschke←▼L. Mehmeti

77'▲D. Maličević←▼K. Benali

77'▲T. Gündogdu←▼P. Offermann

86'▲B. Beißmann←▼P. Trainor

86'▲K. Boss←▼L. Bernjus

86'▲L. Dumiec←▼P. Mokam

Schott Mainz U19 substitutes

PatschkeMaličevićGündogduBeißmannBossDumiecNeumann

Manager: M. Aslan

33'▲J. Schonlau←▼B. El van Cihangir

57'▲Y. El Ayouchi←▼D. Omeragic

72'▲L. Meyer←▼A. Peci

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

SchonlauAyouchiMeyerAngongAdrovicDulenchuckEngel

Match Recap: Schott Mainz U19 vs Sportfreunde Siegen U19

Schott Mainz U19 beat Sportfreunde Siegen U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on March 9, 2025.

Goals: Imad (5'), B. Ngyombo (9'), P. Trainor (14'), L. Mehmeti (23'), S. Bousfia (29'), J. Adozi (78'), B. Patschke (90+4').

The match was played at Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium in Mainz-Mombach.

Schott Mainz U19 vs Sportfreunde Siegen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Schott Mainz U19 vs Sportfreunde Siegen U19