Sportfreunde Siegen U19 4–2 Kickers Offenbach U19

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kickers Offenbach U19

H. El Chaabi 90+3', 90'

D. Omeragic 58'

Imad 27'

R. Zablotzky 79'

B. Özcelik 53'

2/16/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 3Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U1962%

×Draw18%

Kickers Offenbach U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde Siegen U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.42

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.60

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.42

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 47 away

2.14

creates per match

0.98

1.86

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.14

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

1.86

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or draw

80%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

82%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

38%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

41%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

92%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

73%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

47%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

76%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

41%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.14 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.60

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

62%

level

18%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

20%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

40'

46'

53'

58'

65'

L. Meyer← Y. El Ayouchi

71'

D. Adrovic← A. Peci

76'

H. Uhumwangho← C. Bah

76'

R. Mben Bata← B. Özcelik

76'

R. Zablotzky← A. Pistritto

79'

R. Zablotzky

81'

B. El van Cihangir← D. Omeragic

90'

H. El Chaabi

90+3'

H. El Chaabi

Sportfreunde

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

Manager: M. Aslan

65'▲L. Meyer←▼Y. El Ayouchi

71'▲D. Adrovic←▼A. Peci

81'▲B. El van Cihangir←▼D. Omeragic

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

MeyerAdrovicCihangirGrgicDulenchuckEngelOmorigie

Manager: S. Stuppia

40'▲O. Yarbo←▼F. Stoehr

46'▲B. Özcelik←▼M. Dahl

76'▲H. Uhumwangho←▼C. Bah

76'▲R. Mben Bata←▼B. Özcelik

76'▲R. Zablotzky←▼A. Pistritto

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

YarboÖzcelikUhumwanghoBataZablotzkyDrewBouzarzar

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Siegen U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 16, 2025.

Goals: Imad (27'), B. Özcelik (53'), D. Omeragic (58'), R. Zablotzky (79'), H. El Chaabi (90', 90+3').

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Siegen U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19