Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3–1 Greuther Fürth U19

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Greuther Fürth U19

J. Adozi 69', 15'

Imad 68'

C. Cissé 86'

3/29/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 8Kunstrasenplatz Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U1950%

×Draw20%

Greuther Fürth U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde Siegen U19Expected goals in this matchGreuther Fürth U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.70

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.23

Greuther Fürth U19

1.70

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 67 away

2.14

creates per match

1.54

1.86

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.14

Greuther Fürth U19

1.54

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

1.86

Greuther Fürth U19

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or draw

70%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or Greuther Fürth U19

80%

Draw or Greuther Fürth U19

50%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

30%

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

89%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

65%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

38%

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

82%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

51%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.14 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.23

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

30%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

46'

58'

62'

68'

68'

69'

Y. El Ayouchi← B. Angong

69'

J. Adozi

75'

D. Stauber← J. Lober

75'

L. Stauber← H. Rothkegel

79'

B. El van Cihangir← Imad

79'

J. Lotz← B. Ngyombo

86'

C. Cissé

Sportfreunde

Greuther

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Imad

⚽2

Adozi

▼

Angong

Manager: M. Aslan

62'▲M. Zilz←▼D. Omeragic

69'▲Y. El Ayouchi←▼B. Angong

79'▲B. El van Cihangir←▼Imad

79'▲J. Lotz←▼B. Ngyombo

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

ZilzAyouchiCihangirLotzAdrovicGhiraEngel

Manager: R. Hilbert

46'▲C. Cissé←▼S. Mann

58'▲L. Däumler←▼L. Jacob

68'▲M. Mild←▼J. Valentin

75'▲D. Stauber←▼J. Lober

75'▲L. Stauber←▼H. Rothkegel

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

CisséDäumlerMildStauberStauberHuljakZuber

U19 Bundesliga: Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3–1 Greuther Fürth U19

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Adozi (15', 69'), Imad (68'), C. Cissé (86').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Leimbachstadion in Siegen.

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3–1 Greuther Fürth U19