Greuther Fürth U19 4–1 Sportfreunde Siegen U19

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

S. Mann 90'

O. Enomamiuse 88'

H. Rothkegel 41'

J. Valentin 18'

H. El Chaabi 54'

2/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 1Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth Kronacher Str. 177

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1954%

×Draw18%

Sportfreunde Siegen U1928%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

1.99

Greuther Fürth U19

2.79

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

1.99

Greuther Fürth U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 7 away

1.45

creates per match

2.00

1.98

allows per match

4.14

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.00

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

4.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

72%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

82%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

46%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

35%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

94%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

76%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

52%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

86%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

59%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 2.79

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.00 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

54%

level

18%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

28%

Greuther Fürth U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Greuther Fürth U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. Valentin

41'

H. Rothkegel

52'

D. Omeragic← Y. El Ayouchi

54'

H. El Chaabi

70'

L. Jacob← J. Valentin

74'

O. Enomamiuse← H. Rothkegel

80'

D. Adrovic← M. Zilz

87'

L. Meyer← J. Schonlau

88'

O. Enomamiuse

90'

S. Mann

Greuther

Sportfreunde

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Valentin

⚽

▼

Rothkegel

Manager: R. Hilbert

70'▲L. Jacob←▼J. Valentin

74'▲O. Enomamiuse←▼H. Rothkegel

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

JacobEnomamiuseHuljak

Manager: M. Aslan

52'▲D. Omeragic←▼Y. El Ayouchi

80'▲D. Adrovic←▼M. Zilz

87'▲L. Meyer←▼J. Schonlau

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

OmeragicAdrovicMeyerOsawaruDulenchuckGhiraEngel

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth U19 vs Sportfreunde Siegen U19

Greuther Fürth U19 beat Sportfreunde Siegen U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 2, 2025.

Goals: J. Valentin (18'), H. Rothkegel (41'), H. El Chaabi (54'), O. Enomamiuse (88'), S. Mann (90').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth Kronacher Str. 177 in Fürth.

Greuther Fürth U19 vs Sportfreunde Siegen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth U19 vs Sportfreunde Siegen U19