Sportfreunde Lotte 3–2 Paderborn II: Result & Stats

Sportfreunde Lotte

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Paderborn II

9/1/2024

League #87 · West - 6Stadion am Lotter Kreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportfreunde Lotte52%

×Draw21%

Paderborn II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde LotteExpected goals in this matchPaderborn II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.46

Sportfreunde Lotte

2.09

Paderborn II

1.46

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

1.43

1.50

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.75

Paderborn II

1.43

allows per match

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.50

Paderborn II

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Lotte ↓

Paderborn II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Lotte or draw

73%

Sportfreunde Lotte or Paderborn II

79%

Draw or Paderborn II

48%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+

31%

Paderborn II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals

88%

Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals

62%

Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals

34%

Paderborn II 1+ goals

77%

Paderborn II 2+ goals

43%

Paderborn II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)

66%

Paderborn II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 1.75 + Paderborn II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.09

Paderborn II attack 1.43 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more

52%

level

21%

Paderborn II scores more

27%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff