Paderborn II 3–1 Sportfreunde Lotte: Result & Stats

Paderborn II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportfreunde Lotte

2/28/2026

League #87 · West - 24Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paderborn II56%

×Draw22%

Sportfreunde Lotte22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn IIExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Lotte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.10

Paderborn II

1.92

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.10

Paderborn II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.63

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Paderborn II

1.63

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.20

allows per match

Paderborn II

1.00

Sportfreunde Lotte

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw

78%

Paderborn II or Sportfreunde Lotte

78%

Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte

44%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+

33%

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals

85%

Paderborn II 2+ goals

57%

Paderborn II 3+ goals

30%

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals

67%

Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals

30%

Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)

72%

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 1.63 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 1.20 + Paderborn II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Paderborn II scores more

56%

level

22%

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more

22%

Paderborn II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff