Sportfreunde Lotte 2–3 Lippstadt 08: Result & Stats

Sportfreunde Lotte

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lippstadt 08

M. Facklam 62'

F. Elezi 45' (pen)

M. Franke 89', 1'

M. Romano 80'

1/11/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz am Lotter Kreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportfreunde Lotte49%

×Draw20%

Lippstadt 0831%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde LotteExpected goals in this matchLippstadt 08

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.92

Sportfreunde Lotte

2.42

Lippstadt 08

1.92

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.83

creates per match

1.50

2.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.83

Lippstadt 08

1.50

allows per match

Sportfreunde Lotte

2.33

Lippstadt 08

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Lippstadt 08+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Lotte ↓

Lippstadt 08 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Lotte or draw

69%

Sportfreunde Lotte or Lippstadt 08

80%

Draw or Lippstadt 08

51%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+

30%

Lippstadt 08 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals

91%

Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals

69%

Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals

43%

Lippstadt 08 1+ goals

85%

Lippstadt 08 2+ goals

57%

Lippstadt 08 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)

61%

Lippstadt 08 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Lippstadt 08 away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 1.83 + Lippstadt 08 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Lippstadt 08 attack 1.50 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more

49%

level

20%

Lippstadt 08 scores more

31%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Franke

45'

F. EleziPenalty

62'

M. Facklam

80'

M. Romano

89'

M. Franke

Sportfreunde

Lippstadt

Manager: Fabian Lübbers

Manager: F. Bechtold