Lippstadt 08 1–3 Sportfreunde Lotte: Result & Stats

Lippstadt 08

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sportfreunde Lotte

6/29/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportanlage Bruchbaum - Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lippstadt 0852%

×Draw20%

Sportfreunde Lotte28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lippstadt 08Expected goals in this matchSportfreunde Lotte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.70

Lippstadt 08

2.37

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.70

Lippstadt 08 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.83

creates per match

1.90

1.50

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Lippstadt 08

2.83

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.90

allows per match

Lippstadt 08

1.50

Sportfreunde Lotte

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lippstadt 08+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lippstadt 08 ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Lippstadt 08 or draw

72%

Lippstadt 08 or Sportfreunde Lotte

80%

Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte

48%

Winning margin

Lippstadt 08 wins by 2+

32%

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lippstadt 08 1+ goals

91%

Lippstadt 08 2+ goals

68%

Lippstadt 08 3+ goals

42%

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals

82%

Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals

51%

Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Lippstadt 08 (draw refunded)

65%

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lippstadt 08 at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lippstadt 08 attack 2.83 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.37

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 1.90 + Lippstadt 08 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lippstadt 08 scores more

52%

level

20%

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more

28%

Lippstadt 08 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lippstadt 08 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff