Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs SGV Freiberg — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen16%
SGV Freiberg64%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SGV Freiberg creates 120% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓
Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches
SGV Freiberg away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.28 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00
SGV Freiberg attack 3.08 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
SGV Freiberg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
VfR Aalen
VfR Mannheim
FC Nöttingen
FV Ravensburg
Essingen
Oberachern
CFR Pforzheim
Reutlingen
FC 08 Villingen
Karlsruhe II
Backnang
TSV Singen
Normannia Gmünd
Türkspor Neckarsulm
Göppinger SV
Hollenbach
Bissingen
DenzlingenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen host SGV Freiberg on Thursday, 3 June 2021 at 12:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020/2021 season.
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen face SGV Freiberg (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen hosting SGV Freiberg. Match starts June 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen host SGV Freiberg at Sportanlage Felsenstraße.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.