SGV Freiberg vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
SGV Freiberg71%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen13%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SGV Freiberg creates 151% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SGV Freiberg ↓
Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SGV Freiberg at home — creates 3.12, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SGV Freiberg attack 3.12 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.66
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 71%?"
SGV Freiberg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 71% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
VfR Aalen
VfR Mannheim
FC Nöttingen
FV Ravensburg
Essingen
Oberachern
CFR Pforzheim
Reutlingen
FC 08 Villingen
Karlsruhe II
Backnang
TSV Singen
Normannia Gmünd
Türkspor Neckarsulm
Göppinger SV
Hollenbach
Bissingen
DenzlingenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
SGV Freiberg host Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen on Saturday, 5 December 2020 at 13:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020/2021 season.
Preview: SGV Freiberg host Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
December 5, 2020: SGV Freiberg take on Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
SGV Freiberg host Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at Wasen-Stadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.