Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2–2 Lörrach-Brombach

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

FT

2 – 2

Lörrach-Brombach

10/16/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 13Sportanlage Felsenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen61%

×Draw20%

Lörrach-Brombach19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde DorfmerkingenExpected goals in this matchLörrach-Brombach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.16

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

2.20

Lörrach-Brombach

1.16

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen creates 90% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.28

creates per match

1.00

1.32

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.28

Lörrach-Brombach

1.00

allows per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.32

Lörrach-Brombach

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓

Lörrach-Brombach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or draw

81%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or Lörrach-Brombach

80%

Draw or Lörrach-Brombach

39%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+

38%

Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals

89%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals

64%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals

37%

Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals

69%

Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals

32%

Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)

76%

Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Lörrach-Brombach away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.28 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lörrach-Brombach attack 1.00 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more

61%

level

20%

Lörrach-Brombach scores more

19%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff