Lörrach-Brombach vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

Lörrach-Brombach

CANC

13:30

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

6/6/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 41Lörrach-Grütt-Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lörrach-Brombach31%

×Draw23%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lörrach-BrombachExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.82

Lörrach-Brombach

1.46

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.82

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

0.72

creates per match

1.44

2.20

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Lörrach-Brombach

0.72

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.44

allows per match

Lörrach-Brombach

2.20

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lörrach-Brombach ↓

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lörrach-Brombach or draw

54%

Lörrach-Brombach or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

77%

Draw or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

69%

Winning margin

Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+

14%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals

77%

Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals

43%

Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals

18%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals

84%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals

54%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)

40%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lörrach-Brombach at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lörrach-Brombach attack 0.72 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lörrach-Brombach scores more

31%

level

23%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more

46%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff