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Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
FT
3 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
8/22/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Sportanlage Felsenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen48%
×Draw24%
Freiburger FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.67
Freiburger FC
1.22

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.28
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.32
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or draw
72%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or Freiburger FC
76%
Draw or Freiburger FC
52%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
25%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
81%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
50%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
23%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
70%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
34%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
63%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.28 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
48%
level
24%
Freiburger FC scores more
28%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs Freiburger FC

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen beat Freiburger FC 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Sportanlage Felsenstraße in Dorfmerkingen.