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Freiburger FC vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
CANC
13:00
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
3/6/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 22Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Freiburger FC40%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburger FC
1.86
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

creates per match

Freiburger FC
1.52
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.44

allows per match

Freiburger FC
2.21
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
2.20

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw
62%
Freiburger FC or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
60%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+
21%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals
84%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
55%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
28%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
84%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
54%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
51%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Freiburger FC scores more
40%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
38%

Freiburger FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Freiburger FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Freiburger FC host Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

March 6, 2021: Freiburger FC take on Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Freiburger FC host Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at Dietenbach-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.