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Sport Victoria vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
FT
8 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
10/14/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sport Victoria69%
×Draw15%
Serrato Pacasmayo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Victoria
3.10
Serrato Pacasmayo
1.44

Sport Victoria creates 115% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sport Victoria
1.20
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Sport Victoria
2.08
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Sport Victoria+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Victoria ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sport Victoria or draw
85%
Sport Victoria or Serrato Pacasmayo
85%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
31%

Winning margin

Sport Victoria wins by 2+
50%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sport Victoria 1+ goals
95%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
81%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
58%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
76%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
42%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
82%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Victoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 25 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Victoria attack 1.20 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Sport Victoria defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sport Victoria scores more
69%
level
15%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
15%

Sport Victoria at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sport Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Victoria vs Serrato Pacasmayo

Sport Victoria beat Serrato Pacasmayo 8-1 in Segunda División on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica).