Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Serrato Pacasmayo vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
7/1/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serrato Pacasmayo33%
×Draw22%
Sport Victoria44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serrato Pacasmayo
1.59
Sport Victoria
1.86

Sport Victoria creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
0.86
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Serrato Pacasmayo
3.21
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serrato Pacasmayo ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Serrato Pacasmayo or draw
56%
Serrato Pacasmayo or Sport Victoria
78%
Draw or Sport Victoria
67%

Winning margin

Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
16%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
80%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
47%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
21%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
84%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
55%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
43%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serrato Pacasmayo at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.86 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
33%
level
22%
Sport Victoria scores more
44%

Sport Victoria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sport Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Serrato Pacasmayo 3–1 Sport Victoria

Serrato Pacasmayo beat Sport Victoria 3-1 in Segunda División on July 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal (Pacasmayo).