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Sport Victoria vs Comerciantes Unidos — Segunda División 2018

Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
FT
0 – 3
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
8/18/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Victoria34%
×Draw24%
Comerciantes Unidos42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Victoria
1.45
Comerciantes Unidos
1.63

Comerciantes Unidos creates 12% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sport Victoria
1.20
Comerciantes Unidos
1.17

allows per match

Sport Victoria
2.08
Comerciantes Unidos
1.70

finishing

Sport Victoria+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Victoria ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sport Victoria or draw
58%
Sport Victoria or Comerciantes Unidos
76%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
66%

Winning margin

Sport Victoria wins by 2+
16%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sport Victoria 1+ goals
77%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
42%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
18%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
80%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
48%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
45%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Victoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 25 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Victoria attack 1.20 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.17 + Sport Victoria defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Victoria scores more
34%
level
24%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
42%

Comerciantes Unidos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sport Victoria 0–3 Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos beat Sport Victoria 3-0 in Segunda División on August 18, 2019.