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Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
3 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
11/3/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal de Nasca (Nasca (Nazca))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos67%
×Draw19%
Sport Victoria14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
2.15
Sport Victoria
0.86

Comerciantes Unidos creates 150% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 25 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.98
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.21
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
86%
Comerciantes Unidos or Sport Victoria
81%
Draw or Sport Victoria
33%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
43%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
88%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
63%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
36%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
58%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
21%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
83%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 52 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.98 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.15

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
67%
level
19%
Sport Victoria scores more
14%

Comerciantes Unidos at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Comerciantes Unidos 3 – 0 Sport Victoria

Comerciantes Unidos beat Sport Victoria 3-0 in Segunda División on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Nasca (Nasca (Nazca)).