Sport Victoria 0–1 Cesar Vallejo: Result & Stats

Sport Victoria

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cesar Vallejo

5/12/2018

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Victoria26%

×Draw24%

Cesar Vallejo49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport VictoriaExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.66

Sport Victoria

1.15

Cesar Vallejo

1.66

Cesar Vallejo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

1.20

creates per match

1.24

2.08

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Sport Victoria

1.20

Cesar Vallejo

1.24

allows per match

Sport Victoria

2.08

Cesar Vallejo

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Victoria ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sport Victoria or draw

51%

Sport Victoria or Cesar Vallejo

76%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

74%

Winning margin

Sport Victoria wins by 2+

10%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sport Victoria 1+ goals

68%

Sport Victoria 2+ goals

32%

Sport Victoria 3+ goals

11%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

81%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

49%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sport Victoria (draw refunded)

35%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Victoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 25 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Victoria attack 1.20 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.24 + Sport Victoria defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sport Victoria scores more

26%

level

24%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

49%

Cesar Vallejo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff