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Cesar Vallejo vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
8/26/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cesar Vallejo70%
×Draw19%
Sport Victoria11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
2.03
Sport Victoria
0.65

Cesar Vallejo creates 212% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.74
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.77
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
89%
Cesar Vallejo or Sport Victoria
81%
Draw or Sport Victoria
30%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
44%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
87%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
60%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
33%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
48%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
14%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
86%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.74 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.03

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
70%
level
19%
Sport Victoria scores more
11%

Cesar Vallejo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Cesar Vallejo 2–0 Sport Victoria

Cesar Vallejo beat Sport Victoria 2-0 in Segunda División on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Casa Grande (Casagrande).