Sport Victoria vs Alianza Atletico — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Sport Victoria31%
Alianza Atletico45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Atletico creates 24% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sport Victoria ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sport Victoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 25 matches
Alianza Atletico away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sport Victoria attack 1.20 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36
Alianza Atletico attack 1.28 + Sport Victoria defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Alianza Atletico at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Cesar Vallejo
Carlos A. Mannucci
Cienciano
Union Huaral
Deportivo Hualgayoc
Juan AurichAlianza Atletico
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Coopsol
LOS CaimanesSport Victoria
Sport Loreto
Alfredo Salinas
Serrato PacasmayoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sport Victoria host Alianza Atletico on Sunday, 23 September 2018 at 20:30. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Segunda División: Sport Victoria 0–3 Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico beat Sport Victoria 3-0 in Segunda División on September 23, 2018.
The match was played at Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica).