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Alianza Atletico vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
3 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
9/1/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de Nasca (Nasca (Nazca))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alianza Atletico72%
×Draw17%
Sport Victoria10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
2.27
Sport Victoria
0.72

Alianza Atletico creates 215% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 25 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
2.22
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.91
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
90%
Alianza Atletico or Sport Victoria
83%
Draw or Sport Victoria
28%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
48%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
90%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
66%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
39%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
51%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
16%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
87%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
72%
level
17%
Sport Victoria scores more
10%

Alianza Atletico at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alianza Atletico 3 – 0 Sport Victoria

Alianza Atletico beat Sport Victoria 3-0 in Segunda División on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Nasca (Nasca (Nazca)).