Sport Victoria 1–1 Alfredo Salinas: Result & Stats

Sport Victoria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alfredo Salinas

6/10/2018

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sport Victoria54%

×Draw22%

Alfredo Salinas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport VictoriaExpected goals in this matchAlfredo Salinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.26

Sport Victoria

1.96

Alfredo Salinas

1.26

Sport Victoria creates 56% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

0.43

2.08

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Sport Victoria

1.20

Alfredo Salinas

0.43

allows per match

Sport Victoria

2.08

Alfredo Salinas

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Victoria ↓

Alfredo Salinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sport Victoria or draw

76%

Sport Victoria or Alfredo Salinas

78%

Draw or Alfredo Salinas

46%

Winning margin

Sport Victoria wins by 2+

31%

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sport Victoria 1+ goals

86%

Sport Victoria 2+ goals

58%

Sport Victoria 3+ goals

31%

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals

72%

Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals

36%

Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Victoria (draw refunded)

69%

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Victoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 25 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Victoria attack 1.20 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Sport Victoria defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sport Victoria scores more

54%

level

22%

Alfredo Salinas scores more

24%

Sport Victoria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sport Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff