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Alfredo Salinas vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
9/16/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 25Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alfredo Salinas51%
×Draw23%
Sport Victoria26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfredo Salinas
1.84
Sport Victoria
1.26

Alfredo Salinas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Alfredo Salinas
1.36
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Alfredo Salinas
2.00
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfredo Salinas ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Alfredo Salinas or draw
74%
Alfredo Salinas or Sport Victoria
77%
Draw or Sport Victoria
49%

Winning margin

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
28%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
84%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
55%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
28%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
72%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
36%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
66%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfredo Salinas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfredo Salinas attack 1.36 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alfredo Salinas scores more
51%
level
23%
Sport Victoria scores more
26%

Alfredo Salinas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alfredo Salinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alfredo Salinas 1–1 Sport Victoria

Alfredo Salinas and Sport Victoria drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 16, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar).