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Sport Rosario vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2018

Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
8/5/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 11Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Rosario44%
×Draw25%
Sport Huancayo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Rosario
1.57
Sport Huancayo
1.27

Sport Rosario creates 24% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 147 away

creates per match

Sport Rosario
1.64
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

Sport Rosario
1.50
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

Sport Rosario+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Rosario ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sport Rosario or draw
69%
Sport Rosario or Sport Huancayo
75%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
56%

Winning margin

Sport Rosario wins by 2+
22%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sport Rosario 1+ goals
79%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
46%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
21%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
72%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
36%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
59%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Rosario at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Rosario attack 1.64 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Sport Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Rosario scores more
44%
level
25%
Sport Huancayo scores more
31%

Sport Rosario at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sport Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sport Rosario 2–4 Sport Huancayo

Sport Huancayo beat Sport Rosario 4-2 in Primera División on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Rosas Pampa in Huaraz.