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Sport Huancayo vs Sport Rosario — Primera División 2018

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
11/1/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Huancayo59%
×Draw22%
Sport Rosario19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.89
Sport Rosario
0.95

Sport Huancayo creates 99% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.64
Sport Rosario
0.82

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.08
Sport Rosario
2.14

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Sport Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
81%
Sport Huancayo or Sport Rosario
78%
Draw or Sport Rosario
41%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
35%
Sport Rosario wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
85%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
56%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
29%
Sport Rosario 1+ goals
61%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
25%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
76%
Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 145 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.64 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
59%
level
22%
Sport Rosario scores more
19%

Sport Huancayo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs Sport Rosario

Sport Huancayo and Sport Rosario drew 1-1 in Primera División on November 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.