Sport Rosario 2–1 FBC Melgar: Result & Stats

Sport Rosario

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FBC Melgar

6/6/2018

Primera División · Apertura - 5Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Rosario38%

×Draw25%

FBC Melgar37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RosarioExpected goals in this matchFBC Melgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.43

Sport Rosario

1.45

FBC Melgar

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 147 away

1.64

creates per match

1.36

1.50

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sport Rosario

1.64

FBC Melgar

1.36

allows per match

Sport Rosario

1.50

FBC Melgar

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Rosario+0.00on par

FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Rosario ↓

FBC Melgar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sport Rosario or draw

63%

Sport Rosario or FBC Melgar

75%

Draw or FBC Melgar

62%

Winning margin

Sport Rosario wins by 2+

18%

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sport Rosario 1+ goals

77%

Sport Rosario 2+ goals

42%

Sport Rosario 3+ goals

18%

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

76%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

42%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)

51%

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Rosario at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Rosario attack 1.64 + FBC Melgar defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.45

FBC Melgar attack 1.36 + Sport Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sport Rosario scores more

38%

level

25%

FBC Melgar scores more

37%

Sport Rosario at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sport Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff