FBC Melgar 2–1 Sport Rosario: Result & Stats

FBC Melgar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Rosario

9/26/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Monumental de la UNSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FBC Melgar64%

×Draw21%

Sport Rosario15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC MelgarExpected goals in this matchSport Rosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.85

FBC Melgar

1.98

Sport Rosario

0.85

FBC Melgar creates 133% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 22 away

1.82

creates per match

0.82

0.88

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

FBC Melgar

1.82

Sport Rosario

0.82

allows per match

FBC Melgar

0.88

Sport Rosario

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Sport Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw

85%

FBC Melgar or Sport Rosario

79%

Draw or Sport Rosario

36%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

39%

Sport Rosario wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

86%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

59%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

31%

Sport Rosario 1+ goals

57%

Sport Rosario 2+ goals

21%

Sport Rosario 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

81%

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FBC Melgar scores more

64%

level

21%

Sport Rosario scores more

15%

FBC Melgar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff