Sport Rosario 3–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Sport Rosario

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comerciantes Unidos

4/29/2018

Primera División · Torneo de Verano - 14Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Rosario52%

×Draw23%

Comerciantes Unidos25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RosarioExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.20

Sport Rosario

1.81

Comerciantes Unidos

1.20

Sport Rosario creates 51% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 63 away

1.64

creates per match

0.89

1.50

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Sport Rosario

1.64

Comerciantes Unidos

0.89

allows per match

Sport Rosario

1.50

Comerciantes Unidos

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Rosario ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sport Rosario or draw

75%

Sport Rosario or Comerciantes Unidos

77%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

48%

Winning margin

Sport Rosario wins by 2+

29%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sport Rosario 1+ goals

84%

Sport Rosario 2+ goals

54%

Sport Rosario 3+ goals

27%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

70%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

34%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)

67%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Rosario at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Rosario attack 1.64 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.81

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Sport Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sport Rosario scores more

52%

level

23%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

25%

Sport Rosario at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sport Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff