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Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Rosario — Primera División 2018

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
3/25/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Torneo de Verano - 7Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos51%
×Draw25%
Sport Rosario24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
1.64
Sport Rosario
1.05

Comerciantes Unidos creates 56% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 22 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.14
Sport Rosario
0.82

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.29
Sport Rosario
2.14

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Sport Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
76%
Comerciantes Unidos or Sport Rosario
75%
Draw or Sport Rosario
49%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
27%
Sport Rosario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
81%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
49%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
23%
Sport Rosario 1+ goals
65%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
28%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
68%
Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.14 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
51%
level
25%
Sport Rosario scores more
24%

Comerciantes Unidos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Rosario

Sport Rosario beat Comerciantes Unidos 4-2 in Primera División on March 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Distrito de Cutervo.