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Sport Rosario vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2018

Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
5/19/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Rosario38%
×Draw26%
Alianza Lima36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Rosario
1.36
Alianza Lima
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 151 away

creates per match

Sport Rosario
1.64
Alianza Lima
1.17

allows per match

Sport Rosario
1.50
Alianza Lima
1.09

finishing

Sport Rosario+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Rosario ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sport Rosario or draw
64%
Sport Rosario or Alianza Lima
74%
Draw or Alianza Lima
62%

Winning margin

Sport Rosario wins by 2+
17%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sport Rosario 1+ goals
74%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
39%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
16%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
74%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
38%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
51%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Rosario at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Rosario attack 1.64 + Alianza Lima defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

Alianza Lima attack 1.17 + Sport Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sport Rosario scores more
38%
level
26%
Alianza Lima scores more
36%

Sport Rosario at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sport Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Rosario vs Alianza Lima

Sport Rosario beat Alianza Lima 3-2 in Primera División on May 19, 2018.

The match was played at Rosas Pampa in Huaraz.