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Alianza Lima vs Sport Rosario — Primera División 2018

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
4/22/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Torneo de Verano - 13Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Alianza Lima65%
×Draw21%
Sport Rosario14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.99
Sport Rosario
0.79

Alianza Lima creates 152% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 22 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.83
Sport Rosario
0.82

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.77
Sport Rosario
2.14

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Sport Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
86%
Alianza Lima or Sport Rosario
79%
Draw or Sport Rosario
35%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
40%
Sport Rosario wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
86%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
59%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
32%
Sport Rosario 1+ goals
55%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
19%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
82%
Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
65%
level
21%
Sport Rosario scores more
14%

Alianza Lima at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Lima vs Sport Rosario

Alianza Lima beat Sport Rosario 3-1 in Primera División on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.