Sport Recife W 8–0 Pinheirense W: Result & Stats

Sport Recife W

FT

8 – 0

HT: 6 – 0

Pinheirense W

5/22/2018

Brasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sport Recife W75%

×Draw13%

Pinheirense W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport Recife WExpected goals in this matchPinheirense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.41

1.36

Sport Recife W

3.41

Pinheirense W

1.36

Sport Recife W creates 151% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

0.95

creates per match

0.86

1.86

allows per match

5.86

creates per match

Sport Recife W

0.95

Pinheirense W

0.86

allows per match

Sport Recife W

1.86

Pinheirense W

5.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Pinheirense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife W ↓

Pinheirense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Sport Recife W or draw

88%

Sport Recife W or Pinheirense W

87%

Draw or Pinheirense W

25%

Winning margin

Sport Recife W wins by 2+

56%

Pinheirense W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sport Recife W 1+ goals

96%

Sport Recife W 2+ goals

85%

Sport Recife W 3+ goals

64%

Pinheirense W 1+ goals

74%

Pinheirense W 2+ goals

39%

Pinheirense W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)

86%

Pinheirense W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Pinheirense W away — creates 0.86, concedes 5.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife W attack 0.95 + Pinheirense W defence 5.86 → ÷2 → 3.41

Pinheirense W attack 0.86 + Sport Recife W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sport Recife W scores more

75%

level

13%

Pinheirense W scores more

12%

Sport Recife W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sport Recife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff